Congress-Political Winter in Spring Similarities in 1996 2014
S.Narendra
The media reports that some senior Congress ministers have shown disinclination to contest the Lok Sabha elections under the party's banner should surprise no one. The party general secretary Digvijay Singh has moved to Rajyasabha; the finance minister P. Chidambaram has handed over his Shivagana constituency to his son. The I&B minister who was moved from Chandigarh to Ludhiana reportedly did not want to contest. For the first time this party in power is facing elections in which its prime minister is both tired and retired. There is not much rush of people seeking the Congress ticket and the body language of its rank and file clearly show they are ready to retire hurt even before the fight has begun.
The Congress had faced a similar political winter in March 1996, when its government under Narasimha rao was facing Lok Sabha elections. The people thronging the party office on Akbar road and the prime minister's residence had thinned out. In place of senior party strategists planning the party president Narasimha rao's campaign routes, a junior air force officer seconded to PMO was struggling to put together, without political inputs, PM's election tours. The party and its government had the enviable record of rescuing India from a deep financial crisis and launching the historic economic reforms that helped India to aim for double digit economic growth. But this record was overshadowed by scandals, party disarray,10 Janpath politics and pre-poll alliance problems. As a result it was a highly demoralized party that was facing the election.
The Congress in 2014 March is remarkably encountering very same situation. Its 10- year record in office is a mixed bag of some path breaking measures like RTI, MNREGA, Right to Education, Food Security Act, National Health Mission, opening up of retail FDI, draft Tax Code, and financial stimulus package for rescuing business and industry from global financial crisis and the Indo-US Nuclear deal. The average yearly growth achieved in the decade is over 6% in a world afflicted by unprecedented downturn. But such record was blotted by scams in telecom, coal, defence deals and failure to boldly lead transparency and governance issues and fast track official decision relating to investment and growth. Once the perception spread that the government was covering up scams and the business captains openly complained of 'policy paralysis, its credibility down. This was ironical because the Prime Minister Dr.Singh's own reputation for probity remained less affected but the government and the party image was sullied.
As was the case in 1996, now as well the government's communication at the political level with the media,party workers and the people was poor. None other than Chidambaram has publicly acknowledged this failure. A little before it became a lame duck ruler, the UPA began throwing statistics and information about its 'achievements' through a passive advertising blitz.Mostly this expensive exercise spoke of what was done during its 10 year lacklustre rule; but rarely this communication addressed the politics of the revolution of a rising expectations of a young voters. In contrast, the Modi-led BJP political campaign spoke of a more secure and bright future.Observers cannot but notice the difference in the body language of the main contestants and their media presence.
Again going back to 1996, some ministers and people in the party had given to PM an over optimistic assessment by the Intelligence bureau predicting over 200 wins in the May elections. However, an internal opinion poll had said that the party could get a dismal 130-150- seats. The realist that Rao was had reconciled to this lower figure. He told me in a conversation that constituency of the poor had deserted the Congress in favour of parties propagating identity politics. And, the minority community had begun deserting the party long back. He was keen to have an understanding with BSP and Lalu Prasad Yadav and JD in order to gain political mileage for the party in the north, where it was on a losing wicket .But party stalwarts, especially in the concerned states did not buy this idea. And, political rats were jumping out of the Congress sinking ship, which is happening in 2014 as well.
The game changing economic reforms politically led by the prime minister Rao had no political face other than the prime minister himself and no government minister used the reform plank in the campaign. This hesitation of the party to put across economic reforms as the road to poverty reduction and job growth to a speedily rurabanizing voters prevailed in 1996; and it continues to cast a shadow on the party's present campaign. If one hears the party vice-president Rahul Gandhi's election speeches this ambivalence on this issue becomes obvious. Media reports claim that party's internal surveys giving the party an over optimistic tally of seats. At the same time they also suggest that the Congress is backing on the failed 'federal front' constituents to divide the NDA votes.
In 1996 the party gathering about 29% of the total votes won 140 seats, mainly coming from the south. And BJP alone bagged about 20% votes and 161 seats. There were 26 other smaller parties among the poll victors. The main effort of the Congress was to keep BJP out of power, rather than to gain it. The party was only successful in postponing this prospect. That was possible because most smaller parties did not want to be contaminated by aligning with 'a non-secular' party. Since 1996, there is hardly a party, barring the left, that has not allowed itself to be contaminated by sleeping with secular and non –secular parties in search of power and pelf. Neither of the two big 'so-called national parties' have shut the door on parties and politicians accused of scams.
This time round the Congress will not be able to use the 'non-secular' label for scaring allies away from the smell of power.
--
| Reply via web post | Reply to sender | Reply to group | Start a New Topic | Messages in this topic (1) |
No comments:
Post a Comment