PR discussions: Re: [prpoint] General Elections 2014

Very good analysis. Very close to what might happen in reality.

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From: "T.N.Ashok" <ashoktnex@gmail.com>

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Date: Thu, 1 May 2014 18:42:49 +0530

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Subject: Re: [prpoint] General Elections 2014 - Political Debate

a very interesting analysis by prof ujwal choudhury. he appears to have access to information. he is very close to the truth about match fixing between amit shah and ahmed patel , albeit political adversaries.

smriti irani is a light weight and is no longer having the TV serial advantage.

its very clear that no big political party wants either modi, Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi defeated. they want their candidates defeated but not the leaders.

yes aap came with a lot of expectations but my reckoning as a journalist following the election trends closely and talking to different types of people and politicians , the party has lost its momentum and cannot muster more than 20 seats maximum, but that''s enough for them to create havoc at the centre with the lung power they will have through intellectuals.

areas they could get votes : haryana, delhi, punjab, karnataka and some in up.

my gut feeling : for all the modi hype in the media , so called modi wave,

bjp led by modi saab is just crossing the 200 figure mark with or without the allies???? but that would be a setback for the BJP. Both Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani and some NRI s from USA and UK have pumped in huge quantities of money in the elections as if Modi was the last bet for the country, and that he would lift the country out of the economic morass. All major industries are backing Modi as they want the country out of policy paralysis.

Intelligence agencies suggest that all media houses in the TV business have all been paid upwards of Rs 100 crore each to build a hype around Modi so that he occupied the mind space of every Indian before the elections.

The balloon : will it stay inflated or burst is the million dollar question. Will the modi hype also end up as a damp squib as the India shining campaign of 2009. But one thing is clear , I dont see a 3rd front emerging to form the government as in the period before 2004. over 10 crore voters joined the fray this time all in the age group between 18 and 25. I am told majority of them go with BJP and another percentage with AAP, but none with Congress.

So here are my predictions based on poll surveys and my own hunches if they can be trusted:

A Modi Wave : More based on his charisma and Gujarat model hype

BJP + plus NDA allies = 270 to 300 seats.

(BJP 190 to 250 seats and allies 80 to 50 seats)

No Modi Wave, but a swing against incumbency;

BJP + plus NDA allies = 200 to 220 seats.

(BJP 180 to 200 seats and allies 40 to 20 seats)

Key states which matter:

Uttar Pradesh (85) , Bihar (54) , Rajasthan (25) , Madhya Pradesh (40) , Punjab (13), Maharashtra (48) , Gujarat (26), West Bengal (40).

Media reports suggest that BJP has put in max efforts in UP, Bihar, and Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh would complement as they are home states. Maharashtra and Gujarat could provide the swing.

Guestimates: UP - BJP 49, BSP 16, SP 14, Congress 06.

Bihar : BJP 24, JD(U) 13 , RJD 10, Cong 04

Rajasthan BJP 22 rest others

MP BJP 27 rest others
Punjab BJP+ SAD 19 rest others

Mahrshtra BJP + SS 24, Cong+NCP 20

Gujarat BJP 20, Cong 04, AAP 01.

As per this projection, BJP should get 185 seats out of 315 seats in seven key states in north and west and central india. This not a wave but short of it.

In the south projections for key states are : Karnataka : Congress will do well with 18 seats , BJP 10, JD(S) 8. Andhra Pradesh : YSR Congress 19 seats, Congress 06, TDP 15 and TRS 08. Tamil Nadu AIADMK 23, DMK 10, Congress 02, BJP alliance 04.

This projections gives BJP 204 seats out of 382 seats in 10 key states. The remaining 13 seats with 161 seats hold the key to government formation.

Its anybody's guess that with the most powerful publicity blitz ever launched by a political party in an general election centered around one personality , the BJP will emerge as the single largest party.

But will it fall short of the mark or succeed in mustering the right numbers to form the government is to be : Wait and Watch.

ashok tn ( a former election analyst of pti).

On 1 May 2014 12:57, Ujjwal K Chowdhury <ujjwalk.chowdhury@gmail.com> wrote:

(Moderator's Note: Nearly 438 Lok Sabha constituencies out of 543 have already cast their votes. The entire country would have completed the voting by 12th May. The nation will get the results on 16th May. Meanwhile, members can share the views on various political expectations, expected party positions, the challenges before the new Government, etc. Please do not attack any leader personally. Members can discuss political issues.

Prof., UKC, a senior member of the group has sent his views. (appended below). Members can share their views in the group.

srinivasan, Moderator)

Mail from Prof. UKC

Lok Sabha Elections: Comment 8:

AAP Ahead: Post May 16

One of the defining issues of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections is the enigma, hope, confusion and ambiguity, all at the same time centering around the 18-months old party Aam Aadmi Party, born out of the anti corruption movement led by Anna Hazare in Delhi.

When AAP came out with flying colours in the Delhi Vidhan Sabha elections, winning in 28 seats and cornering one-third of the votes cast in Delhi, there was an immense surge of hope and possibility for the party across the nation. Lakhs of Indians become members of the party, online and offline. And as the Lok Sabha elections drew closer, thousands started applying for candidature to contest.

However, first coming to power with the unsolicited support of Congress in Delhi, then leaving power in a huff when the AAP government failed to introduce the Jan Lokpal Bill in Delhi assembly due to the combined onslaught of BJP-Congress, the situation changed drastically.

There were questions as to why a minority government was being formed in Delhi by AAP with just 28 MLAs in a house of 70, and that too with the support of Congress, which it just dislodged in Dec 4 elections.

Then questions were raised as to why did AAP relinquish power in 49 days without taking the people into confidence and in a huff even if Congress and BJP were together to defeat its anti-corruption bill.

Hence, when AAP put up 450+ candidates across India with less than 30 crores in hand as resources, the reactions ranged from a rare wow to a far common cynicism. The party leadership spoke of 100 winning seats while the media opinion polls gave from 3 to 9 seats, none touching the double digit too.

As we are within the last fortnight of the long drawn nine phases, 45 days elections process, it might be interesting to look at what AAP can realize this time around and what could be its impact in near future.

In spite of the popular media, print and electronic, focusing largely on the two major parties and allegations of paid media, not all untrue, flying thick across the electoral spectrum, many reports and pictures show that AAP has managed to put at least a million volunteers across the nation to work partially or full time in this period for the party in its first Lok Sabha battle. That is the first success of AAP apart from putting up 450+ candidates, not all coming clean on its own touchstone.

As things stand on ground today, AAP is sure to cross 15% of votes cast in at least three states: Delhi, Punjab and Haryana, and is expected to cross 6% of votes in three more: Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and there could be a few other surprises too. That makes AAP a national party which by definition in People's Representation Act should have at least 6% or more votes in at least four states of India. That is the second significant achievement of AAP.

Next are the seats and the leaders who are expected to win. Even unkind opinion polls give at least 3 seats to AAP in Delhi and the most likely winners are ace historian Raj Mohan Gandhi, journalist Ashish Khetan and Dalit face Rakhi Birla. AAP would like to believe that journalists Jarnail Singh and Ashutosh are also likely to win.

All media reports show an AAP swing in Punjab, and the likely winning seats are Chandigarh, Sangrur, Gurudaspur and Ludhiana. A few seats in Haryana, specially Faridabad and Karnal or even Hissar may throw surprises in favour of the party.

In western India, Medha Patkar and Meera Sanyal in Mumbai, and Dr Kanu Kalsariya in Bhavnagar have given a strong fight. There seems to be a good contest delivered by P Uday Kumar in Kanyakumari and the first woman DGP Kanchan Chaudhary in Haridwar on behalf of AAP, though victory in any of these seats will not come easy. And in Bengaluru, former Infosys CFO Balakrishnan is the most possible winner, if any from Karnataka.

Hence, forgetting extremes of 3 and 100, a safe informed guess could be 10-12 MPs of AAP going into the Lok Sabha post May 16, and that could have ace journalists, lawyers, social activists and social scientists, all of whom can impact the functioning of and debates within the Lok Sabha eminently. Even 10-12 MPs within 18 months of formation of the party should be considered a great leap forward. And it is futile to debate what could have been if Delhi mistakes were not done by the party of professionals and social workers, with no political experience.

In every election around the world, a new first-timer party is likely to be evaluated low in opinion polls as neither the pollsters factor a new force in survey, nor do the voters come out vociferously in support of a newbie party though may participate in a silent revolution in its favour, as seen in the Delhi elections which proved all opinion polls wrong.

A subdued victory of NDA, the most likely scenario, or a khichdi sarkar of the Third Front and Congress together, coupled with at least 4 MPs from Delhi, would catapult the party to gain prominence in Delhi again and be favourites for getting clear majority in the Delhi elections as no party is in a position now to govern Delhi with the current Assembly composition.

There are elections in Haryana and Maharashtra within September 2014. An AAP surge in Delhi and Punjab in Lok Sabha and beyond will catapult the party to a strong position in Haryana and some position of significance in Maharashtra by the year end.

The scenario above can be the best possible outcome of its efforts as AAP turns two years come October 2o14, and this itself should b enough. The way ahead for 2015 will come out from the womb of 2014 and its final scenario in politics.

That AAP cannot be wished away as a national force is proven by the fact that a large number of educated clean professionals, social workers, RTI activists and scholars have come into electoral politics through the AAP route and will remain a force ahead.

It is also proven by the real politics in the most talked about three seats of the country: Varanasi, Amethi and Rae Barelli.

BJP puts powerful Smriti Irani in Amethi to break anti-Rahul votes, make him win and Kumar Viswas defeated when Kumar is close to giving real fight. BJP does not put up any strong candidate against Sonia in Rae Barelli where AAP fails to put up a strong candidate even after trying out with Shazia Ilmi and Justice Fakhruddin. Congress gives a return gift by putting strong local MLA Ajay Rai with Muslim, Kolis, Kurmis and rural support to break anti-Modi voters and make Kejriwal defeated and Modi win. It further ensured Muktar Ansari's support for itself hoping for further polarization of Muslim votes. Interestingly, Muktar was defeated in the last general election in Varanasi by Murli Manohar Joshi of BJP by a mere 17,000 votes, while Ajay Rai came third with more than a lac votes contesting then on SP ticket. This surely is the biggest electoral match fixing of 2014 between Ahmed Patel of Congress and Amit Shah of BJP, indeed!

Nevertheless, irrespective of whether a gung-ho or subdued BJP comes to power or Third Front with Congress comes to power, a reasonably strong AAP contingent in Lok Sabha, national party status and presence of AAP across India, and it coming to power again in Delhi with increasing presence in Northern and Western India, are necessary as a quality control in Indian politics, keeping aloft the anti-corruption banner, and bringing home focus on probity, transparency, opposition to crony capitalism and dynasty rule, et al. It is good for the Indian democracy by all means.

--
Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury
Senior Education Media Consultant, Delhi, Kolkata Kathmandu.
President, Advisory Board, Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.
Former Director, Symbiosis Institute of Media Communication Dean, SIU, Pune.
Former Media Adviser, Textiles Ministry, GOI; The Nippon Foundation; and WHO, India.